Putin must sign – or go down as the first Russian leader in a century to concede territory

It seems that maybe Vladimir Putin doesn’t “have something” on Donald Trump after all.

The US president’s threat that he would “ruin” Russia if Putin doesn’t get on board with his plan for a 30-day ceasefire doesn’t suggest that Trump is beholden to his Russian counterpart: “There are things you can do that wouldn’t be pleasant in a financial sense. I can do things financially.”

There are “positive messages” emanating from Moscow, Trump has told reporters, but “a positive message means nothing” – a rare moment of cynicism towards Putin from a president who has hitherto appeared unaccountably indulgent towards the Russian autocrat.

Admittedly, Trump is inviting Putin to sign up to what is a highly lucrative offer, but still, it doesn’t sound like Trump is afraid of anything the Kremlin could do. The possibility arises that the deal is on, and that, if it is not, Trump will spend even more money supporting Ukraine, and apply still more pressure than the Biden White House did to change Putin’s mind.

Given what is now, in total, about a decade of experience of Donald J Trump’s erratic political ways, nothing should surprise us. His fanbase – and it is a fanatical one – contends that every bad-tempered move, every capricious change of mind, each zig-zag in policy-making is merely clever tactics from the man who, as we never stop hearing, is the master of the art of the deal; others diagnose some narcissistic, psychological disorder.

On this occasion, we shouldn’t be too fastidious about Trump’s methods if he does indeed prevent Putin from destroying Ukraine. Only a few days ago, after all, he was busy withdrawing intelligence and military aid to Kyiv.

Trump’s peace plan may become reality quite rapidly. Putin’s latest visit to the frontline in combat gear is no doubt designed to convey an image of martial power as the talks with the Americans approach. It is significant that he chose to go to the Kursk region, Russian sovereign territory which Ukrainians attacked and occupied in a surprise counter-move last year. It was one of Volodymir Zelensky’s smartest initiatives, to prove his forces could go on the offensive, which boosted Ukrainian morale but appalled the Russia civilian population who imagined their country to be invincible.

Putin cannot have the front-lines frozen in a ceasefire while Ukrainian troops occupy even a square foot of Russian land. Putin seems to realise that the de facto international border will soon be set for the indefinite future, and he doesn’t want to be the first Russian leader permanently to have lost Russian territory since the days of Lenin and Trotsky - even if he will gain a handsome slice of Ukraine in the process.

Trump is right; this is a very good offer to Putin which he should require no encouragement to accept. He ought to tear Trump’s arm off and accept any terms on the table. To have won “back” so much of Ukraine is an achievement, in the imperial sense – something he can parade in Red Square to a relieved, war-weary people glad that this war is over. Even if it was at the cost of 800,000 soldiers’ lives and the near-collapse of the Russian economy, Putin would be wise now to declare victory, move in and look forward to Trump relaxing sanctions. It will make Russia the only nation in the world that will find it easier to trade with America since Trump came to power.

But it will still leave Ukraine partially dismembered, weakened, and having to accept a thoroughly unjust peace – and quite possibly only a temporary one.

As a victim of unprovoked aggression, Ukraine should never have been forced to lose any of its territory. The Ukrainian people fought and resisted with remarkable courage, and a spirit that visibly undermined and discredited Putin’s absurd claims that they yearned to be liberated from some Nazi regime in Kyiv. Any disputes with Russia or grievances among Russian-speaking Ukrainians should have been the subject of peaceful negotiations.

What has happened is deeply unjust, and this uneven peace plan will encourage aggressors everywhere to believe that they will profit from invading their neighbours. Given what might have been if America and Europe was still backing Ukraine, forcing Putin on the defensive and risking the inevitable collapse of the Russian economy and his own fall from power, he has done nicely from Trump’s peace plan. And he knows it.