Trump’s second term is a threat to democracy, global security and our planet

Donald Trump’s first term was chaotic; his second term will be far more dangerous. While he remains erratic, Trump’s entourage is radicalised and alarmingly prepared.

Project 2025, a chilling 900-page playbook for his administration, does not stop at halting climate action. Enacting it will undermine fact-based decision-making and liberal democracy as we know it by dismantling scientific institutions and democratic norms.

This is not just an American crisis. Against a backdrop of global instability, Trump’s return threatens democracy, climate action, and security worldwide. Outlandish rhetoric about annexing Greenland or Canada shouldn’t distract from the grave danger his presidency poses – or the cool-headed resolve required from countries like the UK.

This threat transcends policy disagreements. Trump’s neglect of the climate crisis and his relentless zero-sum worldview (one side only gains if others lose) provide more than enough reason for vehement opposition. More gravely, his vision seeks to upturn the United States towards hegemonic rule by abolishing democratic checks and balances. His attempt to stay in power despite losing the 2020 election is the most blatant manifestation of this threat. This epitomises his disregard for power sharing and his failure of the litmus test for democratic politicians, which requires respect for the democratic rules of the game – and it underscores Trump’s autocratic tendencies.

Trump and his allies will pursue their vision without concern for traditional US partners or international causes. This promises to have detrimental consequences beyond the US. Opposing them is undoubtedly the right thing. However, it is also in the self-interest of democratic citizens and governments.

We know the illiberal far-right script by now. In the name of “the people”, democratic participation is weakened, courts are robbed of their independence, and electoral rules are changed to favour the incumbent. Opposition is already an uphill battle in the US: gerrymandering – redrawing electoral district boundaries for political advantage – favours Republicans overall, and conservatives are in the supermajority on the Supreme Court, with a third of justices picked by Trump himself. Sadly, the Republican Party shows no signs of acting as a corrective to these undemocratic tendencies.

But even if Trump’s ambitions were to stop there, those of his allies do not. Project 2025 meticulously details plans to rebuild America according to the autocratic script: politicise bureaucracy by firing politically undesirable civil servants, and place the – currently independent – Department of Justice under presidential control. Yet, the president not only plans to be politically unchecked: he also plans to be unconstrained by scientific evidence. Project 2025 calls to “dismantle” independent science agencies such as the National Oceanographic and Atmospheric Administration (NOAA), which delivers critical climate data in the US. But silencing the alarm does not resolve the climate emergency.

Trump’s agenda erodes American democracy and our ability to work together on humanity’s most pressing problems, like safeguarding the planet and our livelihoods. Opposing this attempt to erode American democracy is the right thing to do; it’s in our best interest!

A second Trump term also poses a greater global risk: his administration is set to capitalise on a more volatile, multipolar world and advance a selfish, short-sighted foreign policy. His view of every problem as transactional and zero-sum is divisive and profoundly ill-suited to our interconnected world: trade, AI governance and, most notably, the climate crisis demand collective action and cooperation.

The prime example of Trump’s shortsighted and egoistic approach might be his expected withdrawal from the Paris Agreement on climate change. While this is a setback, the landmark agreement is larger than any one nation and retains the support of all its other signatories. The Paris Agreement is far from perfect, but it has made measurable progress in curbing emissions, showcasing the power of global cooperation. For many countries, it remains the only forum in which they have an equal voice in shaping the future.

Ironically, Trump’s efforts to undermine global cooperation will likely involve alliances of his own – with far-right leaders and autocrats. He is likely to collaborate with figures such as Argentina’s Javier Milei and Saudi Arabia’s Mohammed bin Salman, and back far-right illiberal opposition leaders such as Marine Le Pen in France, Alice Weidel in Germany, and elements of Reform in Britain. Countering this requires a coordinated response that transcends traditional alliances and embraces a broader coalition, and climate cooperation perhaps exemplifies this best.

The US has never led on climate ambition, given the continued expansion of its use of fossil fuels, but Trump’s destructive agenda risks undoing vital diplomatic gains. Countries including the UK, France and Germany must build alliances of their own and beyond the G7, working with climate progressives from small island states, the group of Least Developed Countries, and critical players such as China, Chile, Colombia, and Brazil – host of Cop30 and next year’s Brics summit – to protect global climate action. To succeed, this effort must be grounded in a commitment to equity and fairness.

Beyond politics, this holds true for economics: Trump and the US have imposed tariffs on Chinese clean tech, making America increasingly irrelevant and shifting exports to other countries rather than curbing cleantech growth. Only four per cent of China’s total exports of solar, wind power equipment, and electric vehicles go to the US. In a market growing 30 per cent this year, unilateral protectionism will render the US isolated, a sinking island in a rapidly evolving global landscape.

As Trump takes office, leaders should call his bluffs and stand firm against his attempts to dismantle democracy and cooperation. In particular, conservatives and the centre-right must not succumb to making common cause with the erosion of democracy and international cooperation in order to achieve short-term policy success. Leaders should provide real solutions to the deprivation and inequality that act as fertile ground for populism, instead of simply exploiting them with bogeyman rhetoric. Governments such as the UK’s must come together, strengthen alliances, and resist the far-right divisive forces in order to safeguard our shared future and ensure that global cooperation, not autocracy, charts the way forward.

Andreas Sieber is the associate director of policy and campaigns at 350.org, which works on geopolitics, energy and climate politics.

Ivo Bantel PhD is affiliate researcher at the University of Zurich and has researched polarisation and radical right parties at Zurich and Harvard.