The world expects better of Israel than constant recourse to violence

If brutal military operations by the Israel Defence Forces (IDF) in Palestinian settlements were sufficient to end the conflict in the region, then the Middle East would have been at peace for decades. Plainly, it has not been – and equally obviously, violence is begetting violence, as it always has.

Whatever the justifications given by the Israeli government for what amounts to another invasion of the Jenin refugee camp, home to some 14,000 Palestinians and supposedly part of a nascent free Palestinian nation, no one can seriously believe it will succeed in furthering the cause of peace, strengthening the security of Israel, or ending the persistent terrorist attacks on innocent Israeli civilians. Indeed, if history is anything to go by – and in this part of the world it tends to dictate a lot – it will merely make matters even worse.

Of course, it’s fair to say that the Israeli attack wasn’t motiveless. There have been many deadly attacks by Palestinian groups on Israeli settlers, followed by Israeli vigilante retaliation. Recent small-scale Israeli army incursions have been met with resistance. There is a cycle of violence, and the Israelis think they can end it by decisive force. So the aim of the attack was, in the dramatic language used by the Israelis, to “break the safe-haven mindset of the camp, which has become a hornets’ nest”.

Indeed, there are now “Jenin brigades” operational, as well as Palestinian Islamic Jihad, Hamas, and others. Hundreds of fighters are probably in the area. What the Israeli government, led by Benjamin Netanyahu, does not seem to care to contemplate is that, even if every single militant were to be killed or cowed into submission, there are many, many more ready to come forward, and all the more determined to do so after yet another humiliating incursion.

The action in Jenin does nothing to alter the fundamental causes of the cycle of violence. It is not simply that some there deny Israel’s right to exist in peace, for that has long been the case; it is also that many more Palestinians, especially the young, despair at the seemingly inexorable accumulation of land by Israel. They see no hope of a homeland of their own. Given that the Netanyahu administration is so beholden to the very political parties sponsoring the illegal settler movement, actions such as those in Jenin should come as no surprise, and nor will the Israelis readily relent.

In essence, the IDF operation in Jenin was a punitive, retributive exercise, and one that is sure to escalate tensions. The town of Jenin hosts a refugee camp that dates back to 1948, and is thus both a symbol and a cause of grievance. It was a centre for violence in the second intifada, which ended in 2004/5. None of that deterred the Israelis. Drones were deployed, and more than 2,000 Israeli troops and armour were sent in.

Israel claims to have struck a weapons production and explosives storage facility, as well as a joint operations centre used by militants for observation and reconnaissance missions to coordinate attacks. At least 10 Palestinians were killed and 100 more injured in the operation. The world awaited the inevitable revenge attack... and now it has come.

Instead of exercising restraint and reinvesting time in the Middle East peace process, now moribund, Israel risks sparking a third intifada. Israel even seems unwilling to abide by serious commitments on settlements brokered by Jordan and given to the Palestinian Authority at the Aqaba meeting last year. Instead of helping to rebuild the power of the Palestinian Authority in flashpoints such as Jenin and Nablus, Israel is effectively recruiting for the likes of the Jenin brigades. Soon, Israel won’t even have a Palestinian government with which to negotiate, and much of that will be its own fault.

The leadership of Palestine is tired and lacks democratic legitimacy, and, for all its authoritarianism, is less and less in control of the state it purports to govern. Yet for the purposes of international recognition and diplomatic initiatives, it is all the Palestinians – and indeed the Israelis – have got. The more its power and influence wane, the further a lasting peace recedes into the distance, and the more likely another bloody intifada will take the lives of innocent people.

Nor, with such unremitting inhumanity, will Israel be able to call so easily on its old and new friendships in the region, such as those it has with Egypt, Jordan and Saudi Arabia, to guarantee any accords that might emerge, far-fetched as such an outcome feels today. Israel is one of the few democratic governments in the region, and the world expects better of it than constant recourse to vengeful violence. Israel’s curious and ill-advised rapprochement with Russia after the invasion of Ukraine is also undermining its own interests.

Israel, for all its defiant, stubborn ways, does need the EU and above all the United States to respect its policies and protect its interests. The Israelis always say that they “live in a tough neighbourhood”, but that is all the more reason to try to retain powerful allies.

A two-state solution guaranteed internationally remains the most feasible outcome for long-term peace and security. It feels remote, but it remains feasible. Mr Netanyahu doesn’t seem in the mood to talk, but he and his political partners should nonetheless comprehend that if they don’t stop the illegal settlements, then an intifada will do that for them.

This article was amended on 7 July 2023. It previously said the second intifada ended in 2002, but this was incorrect. There is no universally accepted date, but it is widely held to have ended in 2004 or 2005.