Six Nations predictions: Winner, top try-scorer, breakthrough star and more

An intriguing Six Nations is set to begin as the annual championship pitting the northern hemisphere’s best sides against each other returns with as many fascinating storylines as ever.

Ireland are targeting a historic three-peat of title wins but their head coach is off leading the British and Irish Lions, closest contenders France are welcoming the best player in the world, Antoine Dupont, back to the fold but have injury questions, while a Scotland side missing their skipper Sione Tuipulotu need to prove they can genuinely challenge for the trophy.

The pressure is growing on Steve Borthwick after a second half of 2024 where England consistently came out on the wrong end of one-score games. New captain Maro Itoje will want to begin his tenure in style, while Warren Gatland would probably scoff at the notion of Borthwick being under fire after he led Wales to a historically dismal winless 2024. Meanwhile, Gonzalo Quesada’s Italy revolution heads into a second Six Nations off the back of a disappointing autumn.

Who will star with the Lions selection debate raging, which breakthrough players might turn the tournament on its head and what are we looking forward to most?

Find out who The Independent’s writers are tipping for success in our annual predictions:

Harry Latham-Coyle, rugby correspondent: France? This feels a curious campaign with no unimpeachable contender: Ireland are without their head coach; England are led by a new captain and short of recent success; Scotland appear cursed by familiar bad luck. A case for Italy feels a stretch too far despite their progress, while we need not dwell particularly on Wales’s plight. France have a few more selection conundrums than might first appear, and have to go to Dublin and Twickenham. Yet their Toulousain and Bordelais stars are in flying form – plus, teams with Antoine Dupont in them tend to win things.

Luke Baker, sport live editor: A returning Dupont and Romain Ntamack – with whom France have won 15 of 19 Six Nations matches when both players start – probably makes Les Bleus favourites, but the fact that they have to travel to both Dublin and Twickenham, plus their growing injury crisis, add a seed of doubt. The “now or never” drumbeat surrounding Scotland is beating ever louder but given the fact that since 1999 it has always been “never” for the Scots, it’s tough to feel confident they’ll make the breakthrough... Meanwhile, Ireland may be operating without Andy Farrell and looked flawed in the autumn but I fancy them to down France at fortress Aviva in Dublin, which should put them in pole position to seal a historic three-peat, even if a grand slam may again elude them.

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HLC: Surely the Welsh woe will end at some point? Gatland’s squad remains poor on proven performers but the returns of Taulupe Faletau, Liam Williams and Josh Adams feel significant. Italy, meanwhile, did not have a brilliant November until running the All Blacks close – give me a shock win for Wales in Rome in round two to snap the losing streak and provide hope of a brighter future.

LB: There are worrying signs that Italy may have regressed over the past 12 months but with a rocking Rome crowd behind them, they should be able to scrape a round two win over struggling Wales to condemn Gatland’s men to a second consecutive wooden spoon and likely end the head coach’s second tenure at the Principality. I’m not entirely ruling out the wheels completely coming off the England wagon though because the fixture list has not been kind – chastening defeats to Ireland and France in the first two rounds followed by another Calcutta Cup loss to a Scotland side who have had their number for the past half-decade and they would suddenly be staring down the barrel.

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HLC: Antoine Dupont. The best player on the planet’s successful sevens sojourn was highly enjoyable, but his return to this championship is most welcome. It’s not just his attacking gifts that enhance France, Fabien Galthie’s side is an all-round better team with Dupont and Ntamack together pulling the strings.

LB: Caelan Doris looks ready to take the next step and really cement himself as the premier No 8 in world rugby after a 2024 that saw him nominated for World Rugby Player of the Year and named in the World Rugby Dream Team of the Year. Now captaining Ireland, he can thrive off the added responsibility and enhance his case to be Lions skipper come the summer.

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HLC: Relative stability across a lot of starting lineups from the autumn makes this a difficult category to select within. But Asher Opoku-Fordjour’s development is highly exciting, with the England prop beginning to sprinkle in flashes of his athletic ability having largely forged his burgeoning reputation as a scrummager.

LB: Henry Pollock is the wildest of wildcards but this Six Nations may come one year too early for the incredibly dynamic England flanker. Having shone for Toulouse, Pierre-Louis Barassi could make the French No 13 shirt his own in the absence of Gael Fickou but sticking with Les Bleus, towering lock Joshua Brennan may be ready to star. With Thibaud Flament injured, it could be Mickael Guillard who gets the first crack by starting against Wales but 23-year-old Brennan – son of ex-Ireland international Trevor Brennan – should emerge from the bench, has been brilliant for Toulouse and is a former age-grade standout for France.

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HLC: Damian Penaud and Louis Bielle-Biarrey have left carnage and chaos in their wake for Bordeaux Begles, with the former back to his best and the latter excelling at full-back or wing. With Penaud out of the opening encounter with Wales, his junior partner in try-scoring crime may just take it. Bielle-Biarrey’s sheer sprinting speed is quite the sight – assuming France do well, he should have no shortage of opportunities.

LB: You may have heard the same tune for two decades but this really is the year for Scotland to ascend to legitimate title contenders – we promise... They have arguably had the best, most consistent backline in the championship for the past couple of years and while captain Sione Tuipulotu’s injury is a devastating blow, that shouldn’t slow down Duhan van der Merwe’s try-scoring exploits. Sure, his defensive deficiencies and occasional lapses in concentration are infuriating but his finishing ability is sensational and you can lock him in now for at least two tries against England, one of which will be a try of the championship contender. If he can just extend some semblance of that form he shows against England to the other four fixtures, he will be in with a great shout of topping the charts.

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HLC: The rivalry and rancour of this competition will only be heightened in a British and Irish Lions year, the selection squabbles long since underway. Let’s embrace the debate – arguments over the relative merits of one nation’s players in comparison to another’s only add an extra layer to this great competition, and the Lions concept remains a real point of difference for the sport. Andy Farrell will take no notice of the noise when he comes to name his squad but do please indulge in putting forth a case for each and every possible tourist, including those not involved.

LB: The fact it’s a Lions year is probably the objectively correct answer but as ever, there are so many fascinating narratives for every team heading into this glorious seven-week period. For me, watching those battling in the bottom half will be unbelievably compelling. Can Italy build on the momentum that Quesada created last year to genuinely position the Azzurri as a consistent Six Nations force year in and year out? And will a Wales squad brimming with raw talent but completely bereft of confidence finally start taking steps forward or will Gatland fall on his sword? Their round two clash in Rome on 8 February will be a must-watch.