Ukraine’s forces prepare for offensive from Putin’s troops in east – as Russia gains ground near key town

There has been relief across Ukraine that the US House of Representatives has passed fresh military aid after months of political infighting – but as Vladimir Putin’s forces step up attacks in the east of the country, Kyiv is fearful of a Russian offensive before those weapons and ammunition arrive.

A Ukrainian major, Taras, eating dinner in the city of Kramatorsk, just after the vote in Congress at the weekend, said: “You can hear the Russians are very angry [with drone and shelling attacks on the increase]. As the lack of American ammunition and other supplies got worse in recent weeks and the Russians have advanced we have all been very worried.

“We are grateful to America and other countries for their help and we need the US to send those supplies as fast as possible. It means the difference between life and death to our soldiers and for our ability to not only stop Russians advancing but to retake territory they have captured,” he added.

Ukraine’s president Volodymyr Zelensky, the country’s military commander, Oleksandr Sirskyi, and the military intelligence chief, Kyrylo Budanov, have all predicted a big Russian offensive starting next month or by June. But there is a widespread belief among troops that Moscow isn’t going to wait until the US supplies are back in full flow and Ukrainian forces are preparing for pre-emptive powerful Russian strikes.

Ukrainian military spokesman Captain Dmytro Pletenchuk said: “It’s difficult to analyse what our enemy’s tactics will be. And we know that the Russians are prone to impulsive decisions and can adopt unexpected plans. So to predict what they’re going to do is difficult and you have to bear in mind.”

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“Of course, any intensification of Russian attacks will make our work more complex, and we preparing for any eventualities. At the same time local authorities [military and civil] have – for the last months – been building new, and reinforcing existing, fortifications all along the front lines.”

In an interview published by the BBC’s Ukrainian service on Monday, Lt Gen Budanov said: “A rather difficult situation awaits us in the near future. But it is not catastrophic, this must also be understood. Armageddon will not happen, as many are now beginning to say. But there will be problems from mid-May.

“The Russians will use a comprehensive approach. They conduct a complex operation ... it will be a difficult period. Mid-May, early June,” he added.

President Zelensky, during an American TV interview on Sunday, pleaded for the US to send military supplies as soon as possible and that Ukraine was preparing for an offensive. “We are preparing,” the Ukrainian leader said, reiterating Syrskyi’s warning that Russia aims to capture the Chasiv Yar in the next couple of weeks. Chasiv Yar is a heavily fortified hilltop town and forward artillery base for the Ukrainian army, providing protection for some of the area’s largest cities, including Kramatorsk and Sloviansk.

“I hope we will be able to stay, and the weapons will come on time, and we will repel the enemy, and then we’ll break the plans of the Russian Federation with regards to this full-scale offensive,” Mr Zelensky said.

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Kyiv’s armed forces were dangerously hampered in their ability to defend 600 miles of front line by a lack of ammunition for artillery and missile systems –?necessary to fend off Russian infantry and armoured assaults and to provide cover for Ukrainian troops.

Ukraine’s reserves of ammunition for air defences have also run dangerously low and, in recent weeks, it has been able to destroy far fewer Russian weapons launched from the air such as ballistic and other missiles, drones and “glide” bombs (enhanced conventional aerial bombs). That has allowed Russia to destroy large amounts of Ukrainian infrastructure, such as power stations.

On Sunday, the Kremlin claimed its forces took the settlement of Bohdanivka on the approach to Chasiv Yar. Kyiv previously admitted Bohdanivka had been in a precarious situation. An officer involved in the fighting told The Independent last week that Ukrainian forces had lost and then regained parts of Bohdanivka multiple times but warned that his comrades had suffered many casualties and were unlikely to be able to withstand the relentless attacks much longer.

On Monday, Russia also claimed its forces had taken control of the village of Novomykhailivka, near the city of Donetsk, in another part of the front line, about 85 miles from Chasiv Yar.

The Russians have expended large numbers of lives trying to capture Chasiv Yar in infantry assaults backed by armoured vehicles. However, the continuous Russian attacks have tired and caused painful casualties to Ukrainian defenders. Ukrainian morale has been hit as soldiers have watched American supplies diminish. Some have also been dismayed at the indifference they saw in Washington, despite the US being a key ally.

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The rumble of artillery and mortars has been the constant soundtrack around Chasiv Yar but on Saturday night, after news of the Congressional vote became known, there was a loud upsurge in Russian bombardment of the town and surrounding area, with missiles and drones also exploding close to Kramatorsk.

A Pentagon spokesperson said that the first new US supplies could arrive before the end of April. The US could send in weapons already in the bases of its own forces stationed in Europe and replenish them later.

The Independent has travelled extensively over the past three weeks across northern and eastern areas and seen large numbers of Ukrainian armoured vehicles and weapons moving towards the conflict zone, while troops create fallback defences miles behind the present Ukrainian lines.

One effect of the reduction of US military aid is that it has jolted Nato members and other Ukraine allies into increasing their own supplies to Kyiv. Germany has taken the lead in providing air defence weapons, including its arsenal of US-made Patriot missile systems. Berlin launched an “Immediate Action on Air Defense” (IAAD) initiative calling on other countries to donate some of their own air defence weapons or provide cash for their purchase. The IAAD scheme also seeks to provide other powerful air defence systems, such as the Soviet-era S-300 and Western-manufactured SAMP/T.

The Netherlands and Denmark seem likely to join IAAD and Germany said other countries were investigating joining the scheme.

IAAD is similar to an initiative created by the Czech Republic earlier this year to search in other countries around the world for supplies for Ukraine’s artillery and rocket systems. Ukraine badly needs 152mm shells for its Soviet-era artillery and Nato-calibre 155mm artillery shells and rockets for Western weaponry.