Tanks, missiles and keeping Russia guessing: The week Ukraine’s counteroffensive truly began

The build-up has been patient and methodical, progress slow and there is grim expectation of heavy losses to come. But Ukraine’s counteroffensive, one which will probably shape the final outcome of this war, is now underway.

There is combat, fierce at times, at multiple flashpoints across the length of the vast frontline from Zaporizhzhia to Donetsk to Bakhmut. There are also missile strikes in separatist-held Luhansk, and raids across the Russian border, as Ukraine continues chess moves to try and keep the enemy on the back foot.

Ukraine has been asking Western allies for advanced weaponry – tanks, missiles, artillery and warplanes – in preparation for the mission and have got a substantial amount of them.

German-built Leopard 2 and British Challenger main battle tanks, as well as Storm Shadow missiles, French AMX armoured cars, American Himars and Nasam artillery have been assimilated into specialist Ukrainian brigades. Advanced warplanes, such as the F-16, are still missing. They are due in the autumn, and this offensive may still be going on then – as Ukraine seeks to reclaim as much territory as it can before there is any possible ceasefire.

After weeks of probing operations the latest, most kinetic, stage of the offensive was launched with tanks, mostly Leopards, and long-range Storm Shadow missiles being deployed for the time in an attempt to smash through entrenched Russian defence lines.

There are claims and counterclaims about successes and failures over what has unfolded. Volodomyr Zelensky said Ukrainian forces have made gains in heavy fighting in eastern Donbas. In a broadcast, surrounded by commanders in the field, the president spoke of “very tough battles” which has led to “a result, and I am grateful to everyone who ensures this result. Bakhmut, well done step by step. I thank each of our warriors”.

Ukrainian forces have gained around 1km near Bakhmut, said Ukraine’s deputy defence minister, Hanna Maliar. The city, largely destroyed, has become brutally symbolic in the conflict, with Russia losing massive numbers of soldiers in seeking its capture. US security sources said that the Ukrainians had retaken trenches north of Bakhmut, but have suffered a significant number of dead and injured in the process.

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Yevgeny Prigozhin, whose mercenary company, Wagner, has played a leading role in the Bakhmut battle has become a vitriolic critic of the Russian military high-command. Wagner fighters have also clashed with Russian troops. They even captured an officer, Lieutenant Colonel Roman Vinivtin, accusing him of opening fire on their vehicles. He appeared in a video while in captivity, with a bruised face, admitting his “guilt”.

Lt Col Vinivtin was freed after a few days. He said he had been tortured by Wagner personnel who had abducted and abused other Russian soldiers. One young soldier, he claimed, was gang-raped and took his own life.

Wagner has withdrawn its fighters from Bakhmut, handing it over to the Russian army. Ukrainian commanders say that they are exploiting the disjointed coordination between the two forces, as well as their animosity towards each other.

The main Ukrainian thrust has been south of Zaporizhzhia where Kyiv is seeking to push through to the Azov Sea and cut through to the land bridge connected to Russia and block supply lines to Russian-controlled Crimea.

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A primary tactical aim is to secure the town of Tomak, upstream from Kakhova dam which was blown up earlier this week. Vladimir Rogov, a Russian installed official in the area, said Ukrainian forces were being held-back in “active fighting” in fields between Orikhiv and Tomak.

The Russian defence minister, Sergei Shoigu, has claimed that a Ukrainian force, 1,500 strong with 150 tanks and armoured vehicles, have been repeatedly repulsed. He maintained that Kyiv’s forces have suffered extensive casualties and lost 30 tanks.

The Russian Vostok militia stated that Ukraine lost 13 tanks in the Zaporizhzhia region and eight in the Donbas. They also claimed that a number of armoured personnel carriers and artillery pieces have been destroyed.

“We can state for sure that this offensive has begun. This is evidenced by the use of strategic reserves of the Ukrainian army,” President Vladimir Putin told Russian reporters in Sochi on Friday. “Ukrainian troops did not achieve their goals in any sector.”

The Ukrainian government rejected the Russian claims. But a Ukrainian officer deployed with one of the units acknowledged tough going. “The Russians have had months to dig in, they have lines of dragon’s teeth [anti-tank defences] and they are prepared. It is difficult for both sides at the moment. We are going forward, but slowly, we don’t want to risk the lives of our forces unnecessarily,” he said

Meanwhile, attacks inside Russia, by Russian exile militia groups backed by Ukraine, have continued. A senior Russian officer, Colonel Vladimir Kuznetsov, died in a skirmish in the Belgorod region, a Russian army veterans group reported. The death followed the killing of Colonel Andrey Stasev. Both the men were members of the specialist VDV assault force.

The veterans group posted a diatribe on social media against the authorities in Belgorod saying: “Once again this is for the deaf and blind – Ukrainian diversionary and reconnaissance group killed on the territory of Russia two high officers of the Russian army. Why hasn’t martial law been introduced in the region, an anti-terror operation announced, or at least a state of emergency !!??”

Despite the widespread operations, Ukraine has deployed only one of the brigades equipped with the most modern Nato weapons. The others are in undisclosed locations, waiting for orders to advance in a mission which is expected to go on for months – unless there is a sudden and total Russian collapse.