The pitfalls on Labour’s road to a triple by-election triumph

Chris Pincher’s resignation from the Commons – after a groping scandal that toppled Boris Johnson as collateral damage – gives rise to yet another parliamentary by-election, in Tamworth, on 19 October.

It is the same day as the contest in Nadine Dorries’ constituency, Mid Bedfordshire – possibly a government tactic to get the bad news out all at once. Management of expectations will be key on all sides, so look out for an awful lot of spin.

But voters in Rutherglen and Hamilton West will go to the polls earlier, on 5 October – just before the Labour Party conference gets underway in Liverpool. (Margaret Ferrier, the former SNP MP for Rutherglen, was removed by her constituents after she broke Covid lockdown rules). The ideal outcome for Labour would obviously be a freshly-returned by-election victor to parade before the party members.

Given the national polls and current circumstances, all three seats are eminently winnable for Labour, but there are several complications. Sir Keir Starmer and his lieutenants will be concerned they don’t suffer another disappointment such as in Uxbridge and South Ruislip, where the Ulez controversy led to a surprise Tory win.

Rutherglen and Hamilton West

Since the SNP began to self-destruct – a process greatly accelerated by the resignation of Nicola Sturgeon in February – Labour’s poll ratings have picked up markedly in Scotland. Although still just behind the SNP in both Holyrood and Westminster voting intention (around 35 per cent for the latter), it’s a marked turnaround from the trouncing it received in 2019, when it came third on just 18.6 per cent of the vote.

In theory, Labour could look forward to an impressive 12 per cent swing at the next general election – more than enough to nab Rutherglen and Hamilton West as well as a dozen or two other seats. Indeed, it’s possible Labour could overtake the SNP in the number of seats at Westminster, and the Liberal Democrats, with a fair wind, could re-establish themselves as the third party in the Commons.

Rutherglen is precisely the kind of central belt seat that Labour used to hold with huge majorities, and even in recent years it’s been a marginal swing seat between Labour (who held it for many years before 2015, and again between 2017 and 2019) and the nationalists. Only a five per cent swing is needed for Labour to retake the seat, but the scale of the victory will be the critical thing. The modest 2.5 per cent swing to Labour at the Airdrie and Shotts by-election (an SNP hold) in May 2021 sets a bit of a benchmark.

Will SNP votes switch, or simply stay at home? And how far will their claim that Starmer’s Labour is no different to the English Tories damage Scottish Labour’s credibility? If the SNP vote proves more resilient than polls suggest, it might take a little of the shine off a Scottish Labour by-election gain – though such a gain would still be historic, as the first ever gain of an SNP seat in a by-election.

Mid Bedfordshire

This seat is complicated; there is a chance a substantial anti-Tory vote will be split three ways, thus allowing the Tory candidate to sneak over the line for a “shock victory”. Labour, the Liberal Democrats and a popular local independent councillor all have a claim to make. Thus, it’s not clear what a tactical voter who wants to defeat the Conservative should do. Labour and the Lib Dems must be concerned that such uncertainty could allow the Tories to keep hold of the seat.

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At the 2019 election, Labour came a clear second, on 21.7 per cent versus the Liberal Democrats on 12.6 per cent. A constituency poll back in early August suggested Labour would win the seat, albeit on 28 per cent of the vote against the Tories on 24 per cent. The Lib Dems actually polled in fourth place on 15 per cent because the well-known independent challenger, councillor Gareth Mackey, won over 19 per cent in the poll.

However, the Liberal Democrats argue they have much more potential to win over soft Tory votes, even from a nominal third place, as demonstrated so spectacularly in Tiverton and Honiton last year. As it happens, the bookmakers now make the Lib Dems favourite to take Mid Bedfordshire, with odds of 5/4, and Labour second favourites at 2/1, a little ahead of the Conservatives at 5/2. But as we were reminded at Uxbridge, the betting market is not an infallible guide to the ballot box.

If the Tories do steal a crafty win, it will reignite debates about tactical voting and electoral pacts ahead of the general election.

Tamworth

In any normal circumstance, Chris Pincher’s rock-solid Tory seat would have given him a job for life. It would need a colossal swing of 22 per cent to demolish Pincher’s majority of 19,634. But such a swing was achieved by Labour in the recent Selby and Ainsty by-election, as well as almost routinely by the Lib Dem candidates in contests since 2019.

However, given the context and astronomically high expectations, a failure to take Tamworth might be seen as a blow to Labour, even if Pincher’s Tory replacement only scrapes home. Unlike in Mid Beds, Labour has the advantage of being a much clearer challenger, with the Lib Dems only just saving their deposit last time. A problem for the Tories is that, because the constituency is disappearing at the next election under boundary revisions, and a sitting MP has already been selected for the nearest successor constituency, they’ll need to find another candidate who is effectively a stand-in until the general election.

Another massive Labour victory in Tamworth, following Selby, would really signal a heavy defeat for the Tories next time. At a time when the Blairites are once again the ascendancy, it would also geographically echo Labours gain at the South Staffordshire by-election in 1996, secured under Tony Blair with a 22 per cent swing. A celebrated landslide followed…

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