Climate emissions slashed by 87% by 2040 – what will it mean for households?

Climate advisers are recommending that the UK cuts its greenhouse gas emissions by 87% by 2040 – with a third of the reductions coming from household action.

So what would that mean for families in areas such as home heating, driving, flying and what is in the fridge?

– Home heating

Under the recommendations from the Climate Change Committee, around half of homes in the UK would be heated using an electric heat pump, compared with around 1% in 2023.

That would require the number of heat pumps being installed in existing homes to rise from 60,000 in 2023 to nearly 450,000 by 2030 and around 1.5 million by 2035 – a rate in line with that seen in other countries such as Ireland and the Netherlands.

The climate advisers said people would not have to install new heating systems before their old gas boilers reached the end of their lives, but did say no new boilers could be installed after 2035.

And while households could save ?700 a year on energy bills in 2050 with a switch to heat pumps, consumers will need help with the upfront costs of fitting houses with low-carbon tech, and electricity will need to be cheaper.

And tackling a lack of awareness and misconceptions about the technology will be crucial, as people have concerns about a range of issues including upfront costs, hassle, noise, reliability and how it would work for renters.

There will be no role for hydrogen boilers to heat homes, the Climate Change Committee said.

– Driving

Some three-quarters of cars and vans on the road will be electric by 2040 under the recommendations from the Climate Change Committee, up from only 2.8% of cars and 1.4% of vans in 2023, with rules phasing out petrol and diesel cars.

The committee said electric cars were already cheaper to run and maintain than their petrol and diesel equivalents, while second-hand models cost the same to buy and by between 2026 and 2028 new ones will be cheaper.

The switch to electric vehicles, along with heat pumps replacing gas boilers, will also improve local air quality, but will need to be backed by a significant ramp-up of green energy such as offshore wind.

– Flying

Demand for flights needs to be managed to curb emissions from aviation, while the sector needs to take responsibility for the costs of decarbonising through sustainable fuels, capturing carbon and electric and hybrid plans, advisers said.

That would push up costs, for example increasing the price of a return ticket to Alicante, Spain, by ?150 and a round-trip to New York could be ?300 more expensive by 2050, though that would be a relatively small proportion of the expected increase in household incomes by then.

Consumers could face an increase in air passenger duty or the introduction of a frequent flyer levy, although a citizens’ panel has warned protections are needed to allow families to fly on holiday once a year.

– Diet

To cut emissions from meat and dairy production – and free up land for tree planting to absorb carbon – people would have to eat 25% less meat by 2040 compared with 2019 levels, more than the long-term trend of a gradual decline in meat but less than recent years, and reduce dairy by 20%.

According to the Climate Change Committee’s Dr Emily Nurse, the required reduction in meat is the equivalent of cutting down from eight doner kebabs a week to six.

Reducing meat and dairy intake could boost health, and could be achieved through things such as replacing small amounts of meat and dairy with alternatives in ready meals and increasing choice and availability of plant-based foods in the public sector, restaurants and supermarkets.

The reduction in eating meat and dairy, along with incentives for farmers and land managers to diversify incomes, will lead to the number of sheep and cattle falling by 27% by 2040 on 2023 levels, under the recommendations.

That will free up land to plant woodlands and restore peatland to capture carbon emissions from sectors such as agriculture.

But farmers have criticised the suggestion that a reduction in meat-eating should lead to a cut in livestock numbers, arguing the UK’s environmentally friendly meat production should displace produce from other parts of the world where it has more climate impact.

– Other efforts

Installing energy efficiency measures to insulate homes will help cut emissions, as will replacing some car journeys with getting on public transport, cycling, and walking.

Households will also be able to make a difference by saving energy at home, recycling more, switching to more efficient appliances such as fridges and swapping out their gas cookers for electric induction hobs.